NJ-Sen: A Close Race?

Rasmussen (6/4, likely voters):

Frank Lautenberg (D-inc): 45

Dick Zimmer (R): 44

Other: 7

Not Sure: 5

(MoE: ±4)

Let’s just say that after this nonsense, I want to start taking Rasmussen with a grain of salt again.

The crosstabs show Lautenberg getting only 70% of Democrats and 69% of Obama voters, while splitting independents with Zimmer by 40-41. Some of this might be chalked to the after-effects of Rob Andrews’ aggressive primary challenge, and some of it could be due to this being a possibly wonky poll.

I’ll wait for some other pollsters to tip their toes into this race before I become concerned.

18 thoughts on “NJ-Sen: A Close Race?”

  1. Not for a second…  New Jersey always fools repubs early on and crushes them in the end.  Zimmer will lose by 15 points minimum.

  2. We’re doomed! This will finally be the year when all the close polling is correct and the Republicans finally win a statewide race in New Jersey! Please, please, Senator Ensign, whatever you do, don’t spend $20 million of the NRSC’s money on throwing us into that briar patch!

  3. The one that showed Lunsoford ahead by 5 (instead of down by mid to high single digits)…

  4. I doubt that Lautenberg  will lose this election, its a presidential year, a Democrat year, and its in a Blue state.

    Also Lautenberg has more then 4 million cash on hand while Zimmer hasaround 400 thousand.

  5. That state is such an oddity. I remember back in 2006 when the Repubs thought they could take that Jersey seat, polling said they could, so they tried, they were wrong.

    I am now convinced nobody should Poll Jersey, because it doesn’t matter anyhow.

    Do they like any of their incumbents?

    -zak

  6. but in the end, it will not matter.  Frank never polls well in generals.  In fact, if you exclude his 2002 race against Doug Forrester when he subbed in for the Torch at the last minute, he has never won big in the general.  He gutted out fairly close races in ’82 against Fenwick, ’88 against Pete Dawkins, and ’94 against Chuck Haytaian.  

    This poll is annoying, but in the end even if it is right, it will not matter.  My Jersey brethren ain’t voting for Dick Zimmer.  

    Also, I would be stunned if the NRSC is dumb enough to drop a cent here, but dummies never do learn…

  7. The rasmussen poll also seems to have Senator Cornyn up way too much in TX after the race tightened substantially just last month. I cannot believe that many people will split their tickets in New Jersey.  

  8. … is a GOP partisan polling outfit that exists to make things look favorable for Republican candidates whenever possible.  One only need to look at the Quinnipiac poll for this same race to understand that something’s off.  Other Rasmussen polls commissioned for races in CO, TX, FL, and other states bear out the partisan bias of this firm, which calls Lautenberg’s state its home (Ocean Grove, NJ to be precise).  And thought it may succeed in helping GOP candidates in other states, it has yet to succeed in the state it’s based out of, and as long as some of us have something to say about it, it never will.

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